Forecasts & long-range outlooks
Updated:
Forecasts come from numerical weather models served through Open-Meteo. Beyond about two weeks we switch from a day-by-day forecast to trends and seasonal anomalies applied to the local climate normals.
Sources
| Source | Used for | Resolution / period | Updates | Licence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open-Meteo.com Forecast API | Current conditions, hourly and 16-day forecast, 15-minute rain nowcast, UV | Best available model per location (regional high-resolution models where they exist, global models elsewhere) | Fetched again after 45 minutes (nowcast 10 minutes) | CC BY 4.0 |
| ECMWF IFS, EC46 & SEAS5 (via Open-Meteo) | Model comparison for the coming days (IFS), weekly trend to 46 days (EC46), monthly seasonal anomalies (SEAS5) | Global forecast, sub-seasonal and seasonal systems | Every 3, 12 and 24 hours respectively | CC BY 4.0 |
| NOAA GFS, DWD ICON, ECCC GEM (via Open-Meteo) | Other models in the comparison view | Global models | Every 3 hours | CC BY 4.0 |
| Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (via Open-Meteo) | Air quality and pollen (pollen in Europe only) | CAMS global and European air-quality forecasts | Every hour | Copernicus licence |
How we process it
- Days 1–16 come from the forecast itself. Days 17–46 show the weekly trend as a deviation from normal; later months show the seasonal anomaly. Both are applied to the place’s altitude-corrected climate normals, not shown as raw model values.
- If a fresh forecast cannot be fetched, the last one is shown for up to a few hours and the page says when it was retrieved.
- Forecast pages show the time of the current reading and when the forecast was retrieved.
Known limitations
- Forecast skill falls with lead time: after about 7 days, treat daily details as indications; beyond 16 days only the trend is meaningful.
- Model grids smooth out local effects such as sea breezes, mountain showers and fog in valleys.
- Pollen forecasts exist only for Europe.